Mass deportations proposed by President-elect Donald Trump could cost Mexico tens of billions of dollars and destabilize its economy. According to economist Ismael Plascencia López, the impact could stretch far beyond remittance losses, creating a humanitarian and logistical crisis.
And as long as open borders in the US are an attraction to draw people from all over the world to come through Mexico, this will be a looming crisis for Mexico.
A Looming Crisis for Mexico
The prospect of mass deportations, a cornerstone of President-elect Donald Trump’s immigration plan, has sparked dire warnings from Mexican economists. Ismael Plascencia López of the Northwest Mexico Federation of Economists labeled the proposal a potential “huge strike on the Mexican economy.”
Plascencia López emphasized the scale of the issue: “They’re talking about deporting 11 to 13 million undocumented migrants now in the United States. It seems like an impossible task. But if only one to two million people get deported, it would still be a huge blow.”
The Economic Cost of Deportations
One of the largest financial setbacks for Mexico would come from a significant drop in remittances. Migrants in the U.S. sent a staggering $63.3 billion to Mexico in 2023, with almost $55 billion recorded from January to October 2024.
“These funds are a lifeline for millions of families and a major source of income for the nation,” Plascencia López noted. A sudden halt to this cash flow could create widespread economic hardship and destabilize local economies dependent on this income.
Humanitarian and Logistical Challenges
The fallout wouldn’t just be financial. Mexico would face substantial humanitarian and logistical burdens. Deportees would require food, housing, and transportation—resources that would strain government budgets.
Plascencia López warned, “It’s going to be a blow just in terms of the number of people sent here. But what about all those countries that refuse to take in their own people? They will likely end up in Mexico, and you have to care for them as well.”
Baja Gears Up for Migrant Housing
Preparations are already underway in regions like Baja California, where authorities plan to lease warehouse space to accommodate deported migrants. However, this is merely a temporary fix for what could be a long-term crisis.
A Global Trend, Led by Trump
Plascencia López sees Trump’s proposal as part of a broader, global push against migration. He remarked, “This is the result of a worldwide campaign to oust migrants from many countries, something promoted by President-Elect Donald Trump.”
With a Republican-controlled Congress and Senate, Plascencia López believes Trump’s agenda faces fewer obstacles. “Now with him having control of Congress and the Senate, there won’t be anyone to stop him. This will hurt Mexico,” he stated.
What Lies Ahead?
The proposed deportations could redefine U.S.-Mexico relations and test Mexico’s ability to manage an unprecedented economic and social crisis. The potential loss of billions in remittances and the burden of caring for millions of returnees could leave Mexico reeling for years.
For Mexico, the stakes are high, and the consequences of these policies could reshape its economy and society in ways not seen in decades.